The world's total installed energy storage capacit

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The total installed capacity of global energy storage will reach 43gwh in 2025

recently, the report "long term outlook for global battery raw materials (the first half of 2018)" released by wood Mackenzie, an energy consulting company, predicts that in terms of global battery energy storage systems, the total installed capacity of global energy storage will increase to 43gwh in 2025, 70gwh in 2030 and 91gwh in 2040

a few days ago, wood Mackenzie, an energy consulting company, released a report on the long term outlook for global battery raw materials (the first half of 2018), which predicted that in terms of global battery energy storage systems, the total installed capacity of global energy storage will increase to 43gwh in 2025, 70gwh in 2030 and 91gwh in 2040

the report also predicts that the proportion of global plug-in electric vehicle sales to total electric vehicle sales will reach 6% in 2025, 11% in 2030 and 36% in 2040. Compared with other predictions in the market, wood Mackenzie said his prediction was relatively conservative

the development of electric vehicles will change the demand pattern of battery metals to a great extent. The report points out that in recent years, the high market price of lithium has stimulated the development of hard rock lithium mines in Australia. At present, the transformation of mineral production capacity has encountered a bottleneck, resulting in the oversupply of spodumene concentrate. However, the supply of lithium chemicals is insufficient, and lithium prices continue to rise

the supply prospects for nickel and cobalt are more complex. The report points out that the supply of cobalt is still difficult to conclude. In the medium term, the cobalt market will become more and more dependent on the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which also has a deep understanding of experimental machines, but the supply risk of the country until it breaks will continue to rise. Public information shows that nearly 50% of global cobalt reserves and 55% of current production are concentrated in Congo

the report shows that cobalt will be in short supply after 2024. Woodmackenzie believes that from 2020, cobalt will rise at a growth rate of about 13000 tons per year, which means that a large new mine needs to be developed every year. However, the actual supply situation may not be satisfactory. The essence of cobalt's lack of supply elasticity determines that additional cobalt supply can only come from economically profitable copper and nickel mines. Copper nickel ore is an important resource for cobalt recovery

the report also said that nickel supply fundamentals had tightened before the impact of batteries began to appear. After several years of low prices and insufficient investment, it is expected that from 2023, the market will need additional nickel supply to support the growth of demand. New demands for electric vehicles and energy storage have led to a widening supply gap of nickel, which is in urgent need of recent investment. However, due to the serious damage of investors in the last round of nickel projects, the current market investment enthusiasm for nickel projects is still relatively mild

according to the report, by the middle of 2020, there will be a large shortage of nickel and cobalt, and the market preference for ternary batteries will continue to rise, resulting in a double-edged sword effect. The price of cobalt is higher than that of nickel. Although the prices of cobalt and nickel may rise, nickel may partially replace cobalt in the future, so the cost price of batteries is on the downward trend

the report points out that with the current battery technology, what is the distance between the markings? Most of the distances given by different standards have certain differences. Technically, achieving nearly 10% penetration of electric vehicles by 2030 faces a severe challenge. Although the increase in energy density will reduce the unit consumption of metal, industry insiders believe that unless new technologies such as solid-state or lithium sulfur batteries appear, the energy density of lithium ions will increase by at most 50% from the current level to 300wh/kg. In addition, it is still difficult to predict new technologies and their impact on the corresponding metals

the report also points out that from the perspective of many platform battery raw materials, such as industrial layout, talent system, financial services, various laboratories, R & D innovation, warehousing, logistics and transportation, industrial chain extension and replenishment, investment attraction, testing and inspection, the following three necessary conditions are needed to realize the high popularity of electric vehicles:

first, large-scale nickel mine investment in the short term. It takes about 8 to 10 years on average from mine development, financing to production release. Secondly, technological innovation is needed to gradually replace the amount of cobalt. The supply of cobalt will be increasingly restricted to Congo, and projects outside the country are difficult to have the same scale. Finally, it is necessary to continuously improve the energy density of existing lithium-ion batteries

The report also said that the battery raw material industry will continue to develop. The continuous decline of cost and the continuous improvement of energy density are the driving forces for the development of electric vehicles

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