The hottest limit is hard to change, and the air i

2022-08-16
  • Detail

The rising limit is difficult to change, and the air in the weak rubber market is still pervading.

the "Star" of the domestic futures market yesterday was Shanghai Tianjiao: after the previous continuous sharp decline, Shanghai Jiaotong had a "long lost" rising limit yesterday. However, industry insiders generally believe that due to the difficulty of recovering the demand for tire manufacturing in recent months and the general expectation that the economy will decline further, even if the Shanghai Rubber Industry rebounds in the short term, it is not enough to change the long-term weak trend

"long lost" trading limit reappeared in the rubber market

yesterday, the Shanghai Tianjiao 903 contract opened sharply higher. As the international rubber Union began its three-day meeting, bears left the market to avoid risks, while bulls increased their positions to drive the futures price higher; At noon, the Chinese government released the economic data of November, and the PPI data was lower than expected, which made the market think that the government may further reduce interest rates, and the contract price was sealed at the limit. The main 903 contract closed at 9380 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan or 3.99% from the settlement price on the 9th

"the rebound of Tianjiao can be viewed in the context of the whole market," said Jin Shuguang, an analyst at Nanhua futures. At present, the whole commodity market has entered a window of time. It is expected that the whole commodity will rebound in a crisis in December, and yesterday's rubber price limit may be regarded as its precursor

it is worth mentioning that although the economic prospects of China and the United States are not optimistic, the sharp decline in commodity prices will digest the adverse economic conditions in the future. At this time, the introduction of economic stimulus plans will promote the rebound of commodity prices. The commodity market atmosphere is expected to recover from the supercooling, which will also benefit Tianjiao spot. Moreover, the market expects that China will intervene in the economy on a large scale, and the demand for industrial raw materials will benefit, which is an important reason for the rise of natural rubber. The elongation takes two significant figures

the future market is still short

it is reasonable to say that the decline of rubber price is beneficial to processing enterprises. However, when the financial crisis has had a serious impact on the real economy, the demand for rubber in the rubber industry is difficult to be optimistic. According to the statistics of China Rubber Industry Association, the overall growth of domestic tire and other rubber processing enterprises fell month by month after August. Due to the large increase in inventory and the difficulty in capital turnover, the overall start-up rate of enterprises, such as bs7935 ⑴⑵ 004 and ASTM e467 ⑵ 008, to collect peak and valley values of 50 cycles as sampling points, has decreased significantly. The operating rate of tire enterprises in some regions of Shandong has even fallen to 1/3, and some large tire enterprises have also suffered losses. Even in the case of good economic conditions in the first half of the year, the profits of 46 key tire member enterprises fell by 7% year-on-year from January to may, and 8 loss making enterprises. In the case of low operating rate, there is also a large backlog of inventory. Moreover, this dilemma is difficult to change in recent months, and will always suppress the rebound in demand for natural rubber

the performance of surrounding markets is also a drag on the rubber market. An analyst of Yong'an futures, which is mainly used for the pull-out experiment of bullets, pointed out that affected by the gloomy economic outlook, the EIA predicted that the global daily demand for crude oil would decrease by 50000 barrels in 2008 and 450000 barrels in 2009, which would lead to the first continuous decline in global usage in 30 years. The trend of crude oil is still relatively weak, which has a certain pressure on Tianjiao. In addition, the U.S. dollar fell 0.7% against the yen on the 9th, in a downward trend, which also had a slight adverse impact on Tianjiao

it is precisely because the expectation for the future market is still short, yesterday's spot market did not respond to the rise in futures prices. On the same day, the atmosphere in China's domestic spot market was light, and the official FOB quotation of Malaysian standard glue SMR20 in January fell steadily in early trading. On the previous trading day (December 9), the FOB quotation of Asian spot fell in December, and the prices of RSS3 in Thailand, sir20 in Indonesia and SMR20 in Malaysia changed by -1.7%, 3.8% and 7.3% respectively. Obviously, now we have a strong curiosity about the spring we saw as a child, and the price of goods is still falling, and the futures price will continue to bear heavy pressure

note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI